The author wishes to express his gratitude to Colombian farmers for their hospitality during conducting some of this research. Without the collaboration of the many former field laborers, secretaries, research associates, students and colleagues, who are now dispersed across countries, the achievements highlighted here would have never been obtained. The invaluable courtesy copies of books documenting important research on crop ecology by David Connor, Robert Loomis and Kenneth Cassman, and on climate change by Mary Beth Kirkham, and Cynthia Rosenzweig, article reprints from Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez-Villegas and David Rosenthal were appreciated.Constructive comments from anonymous reviewers were received. Thanks to Farah El-Sharkawy Navarro for the editorial and the WWWnet search assistance.
With nearly 60% of its population under the age of 25 years, Africa is the “youngest” continent on earth . Currently hosting a total of 1.37 billion people , corresponding to almost a double of Europe’s 750 million, the continent is expected to reach the size of 2.5 billion inhabitants by 2050 and of approximately 4 billion by 2100 . By then, one person in every three worldwide will be from the African continent. This exponential growth is expected to be accompanied by an equally significant increase in the continent’s need in animal source foods. Indeed, Africa’s demand for meat, milk and eggs will almost quadruple by 2050 , with annual growth rates of consumption estimated at 2.3% for milk and 2.8% for meat . Currently, however, not only Africa is overall a net food importer , but it is also the most food insecure region in the world, the only one in which the absolute number of undernourished people has increased in the past 30 years , and where that of stunted children under five is still rising . Presently, nearly 60% of Africans are moderately or severely food insecure, with more than 90% of them residing in sub-Saharan Africa . At thesame time, overweight rates are also increasing , highlighting the continent’s need for nutritious foods. Yet, Africa harbours 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land , with one-quarter of the world’s cultivable land being in sub-Saharan Africa but only producing 10% of the global agricultural output .
Therefore, the continent’s rising demand for animal protein could be potentially met, at least partly, through enhanced local agricultural production, made possible by improving the productivity of farming processes , as envisaged by the African Union’s Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme and New Alliance for food security and nutrition . This agricultural transformation process may also include possible access by livestock keepers to wild areas hardly attended or inhabited thus far, to make room for livestock rearing and grazing . By creating new human–animal–environment interfaces, such an expansion may however bring health risks, as pathogens from wildlife could spill over onto domestic animals and people . Moreover, the ongoing climatic changes and global warming may also compound this scenario. Indeed, the spread of desertification threatening several African regions such as the Sahel and the Horn of Africa , may cause the potential concentration of livestock keeping in certain areas, in the form of more intensified livestock rearing, conceivably increasing land erosion . Furthermore, Africa’s ongoing vertiginous urbanisation at a 3.5% yearly rate is also expected to contribute to the convergence of livestock and people on urban and peri-urban areas in the coming decades . This would provide intensified occasions of contact between humans, domesticated and wild animals, thereby creating augmented opportunities for the emergence and transmission of infectious diseases and zoonoses1.
Altogether, this will require an enhanced surveillance and monitoring of livestock and environmental health, including wildlife movement and fitness, biodiversity richness, as well as use and management of water, land cover and vegetation. Although with a certain degree of variability according to countries, overall Africa has so far been hit by a lower number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities compared to other continents of the world . However, the pandemic has still shown to be a major source of hindrance, especially during the first wave of lockdowns in 2020, when the setbacks of international trade caused serious disruptions in food value chains and supplies . Under COVID-19, Africa’s food security has also been further weakened due to income reductions and food price inflation, outcomes of lower availability of agricultural labour and produces, reduced liquidity for traders and interruptions of social protection programmes . In 2020, the number of Africans facing hunger increased by 3%, with approximately 46 million more undernourished people being recorded compared to the previous year.